Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.399105 1.586647 1.785841 2.012721 2.263513 2.531799 2.840035
2025-01-05 1.092359 1.339212 1.618416 1.955949 2.351194 2.797559 3.337899
2025-01-12 0.884012 1.167719 1.508251 1.943260 2.479969 3.116020 3.921924
2025-01-19 0.711432 1.012749 1.396343 1.913306 2.583661 3.414718 4.512865
2025-01-26 0.604971 0.925207 1.356241 1.966743 2.795129 3.864462 5.330893
2025-02-02 0.512297 0.841727 1.310229 2.006582 2.993230 4.316138 6.193811
2025-02-09 0.428464 0.757019 1.250725 2.020136 3.156830 4.737028 7.053645
2025-02-16 0.361207 0.685881 1.200793 2.040690 3.331640 5.187938 7.991883
2025-02-23 0.292517 0.599525 1.114669 1.995247 3.404029 5.499215 8.758728
2025-03-02 0.230163 0.511365 1.011766 1.909133 3.403849 5.702550 9.383828
2025-03-09 0.192414 0.460658 0.964310 1.907182 3.534662 6.111770 10.343517
2025-03-16 0.157510 0.407713 0.904187 1.875002 3.611428 6.441541 11.203910
2025-03-23 0.137429 0.382942 0.895830 1.939560 3.867406 7.091571 12.635964
2025-03-30 0.109074 0.332188 0.827661 1.884049 3.908901 7.396229 13.541814
2025-04-06 0.089484 0.296873 0.784857 1.871364 4.025877 7.836631 14.701539
2025-04-13 0.072313 0.262428 0.737280 1.842040 4.108412 8.223982 15.799732
2025-04-20 0.062900 0.246576 0.729098 1.893538 4.349965 8.907340 17.443917
2025-04-27 0.054155 0.229863 0.715719 1.931913 4.569341 9.566487 19.087156
2025-05-04 0.045624 0.210750 0.692512 1.944872 4.738308 10.144775 20.622570
2025-05-11 0.038711 0.194494 0.673456 1.964642 4.922937 10.764530 22.268238
2025-05-18 0.030905 0.171442 0.630543 1.920531 4.966662 11.117945 23.448404
2025-05-25 0.023585 0.146389 0.575519 1.837080 4.914595 11.279639 24.280857
2025-06-01 0.019532 0.133282 0.553506 1.835125 5.044279 11.809042 25.833666